Monday, November 29, 2010

Evaluating The MVP Race

There have been a lot of great individual performances throughout the NFL this year. From Arian Foster exploding onto the scene in week one to Roddy White elevating his game to an elite level. But the league these days is a passing orientated, win now place. The likes of Foster, Adrian Peterson, Clay Matthews and until recently Phillip Rivers had been discounted from the discussion by analysts because they don’t throw the ball or don’t have the wins. While I don’t agree with this entirely it seems to be the criteria these days. So let’s take a look at the front runners for the award. In no particular order mind.




Phillip Rivers: QB – San Diego Chargers

Yards
Accuracy
Touchdowns
Interceptions
QB Rating
3,362
66.2
23
9
104.9

The Chargers early season struggles have been well documented but needless to say that Rivers was not at fault for their 2-5 start. Until recently Rivers was on a pace to smash Dan Marino’s record for most passing yards in a season, an indication of just how much he’s been trying to make up for the special teams errors and costly fumbles the rest of the team have been committing. He’s also had to battle a plague of injuries to the receiving corps. Constant knocks to  Antonio Gates, Legedu Naanee and Malcolm Floyd, together with the hold-out and suspension of Vincent Jackson, has resulted in Rivers throwing to guys off the practice squad and brought in from the street. But he’s hardly missed a step. Rivers may not be on track to top Marino’s 5,084 yards but he’s playing at such a high level at the moment that he gives the Chargers a chance to win against anyone. The Chargers have quite an easy run in and Rivers has a staggeringly good record in the back end of the regular season  that it’s hard to see the Chargers missing out of the Play-offs, but they’re a game back from the Chiefs for the division lead. A 2nd lose to them in week 14 could finish their hopes.

Signature performance:- Week  9; 29-23 win @ Houston: 17/23, 295 yds, 4 TD



Tom Brady: QB – New England Patriots

Yards
Accuracy
Touchdowns
Interceptions
QB Rating
2,703
66.3
23
4
105.8

The Patriots jointly own the NFL’s best record and Tom Brady is the biggest reason why.  He might not be piling up the stats like his 2007 MVP winning season but has been the heart and soul of the team. While many commentators poke fun at his long hair Brady has turned into a fiery on the field leader. Brady’s numbers took a bit of a dip after the week 4 trade of Randy Moss but he’s not thrown an interception in 199 pass attempts now, and that was an end of regulation hail mary throw to try and avoid over-time. The Patriots defense has been very porous this season and it has been  Brady’s ability to stand imperiously in the pocket and command the offense that has had this team exceeding  its pre-season expectations. His incredible shows recently against Pittsburgh and Indianapolis were of the highest quality and the Patriots are the highest scoring offense in the NFL because of just how well Tom Brady is playing. If he can guide New England to a win against the Jets on Monday (who sit atop the AFC East due to beating New England earlier in the season) it will be a real statement.

Signature performance:- Week 10; 39-26 win @ Pittsburgh: 30/43, 350 yds, 3 TD



Michael Vick: QB – Philadelphia Eagles
Yards
Accuracy
Touchdowns
Interceptions
QB Rating
1,941
63.4
13
1
106.0

Michael Vick started the season as a back-up but was quickly called into action in week one after injury to Kevin Kolb. Vick has sustained injuries of his own that put him back on the bench for a few weeks, hence the lower stats than the other contenders, but recovered well. . The Eagles have also shown an ability to win without him but not in the same style and manner as when #7 is on the field. His fall from NFL poster boy to prison inmate was almost as remarkable as the way he’s turned himself around. Vick’s amazing skill set baffled defences during his spell in Atlanta for a while, but eventually a system was found to contain him. Now you have to throw that system out. Vick is much improved as a pocket quarterback. He’s comfortable to stand there, scan the field and go through his progressions. His amazing arm strength hasn’t diminished while the fear that so long out of football would dull his edge and take the juice out of his legs are long gone. It would be quite a story if Vick were to be crowned MVP, and realistically it would need the Eagles to gain at least a bye in the NFC. In recent games Vick has been kept relatively quiet, a sign that teams have started to figure out a new way to keep him under wraps. The Eagles have a key date in New York in week 15 that will decide the NFC East. And maybe Vick’s candidacy.

Signature Performance:- Week 10; 59-28 win @ Washington Redskins: 20/28, 333yds, 4TD. 8 carries for 80 yards, 2 TD’s.



Peyton Manning: QB – Indianapolis Colts

Yards
Accuracy
Touchdowns
Interceptions
QB Rating
3,344
65.2
22
11
90.8

The perennial MVP. Peyton Manning has won 4 MVP titles including the last 2 years. However those awards were really given on the absence of big name, stellar performances. This year however Manning is having to cope with much more than before. Long-time Colts coaches Tom Moore and Howard Mudd are gone, his safety net of a Tight End Dallas Clark has been hurt, Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon have missed time while the offensive line hasn’t kept him as clean as in previous years. While in the running game injuries to Addai and Hart have left it almost non-existent.  Consecutive losses to Brady and Rivers in the last 2 weeks will have hurt his campaign but Manning is shouldering much more than the other contenders at this point. The Colts are in a tie for the lead of the AFC South at 6-5 and so still very much in the play-off hunt, but at the moment Manning is the outsider of the group.

Signature win:- Week 2; 38-14 win vs. New York Giants: 20/26, 255yds 3TD’s.

Honourable mentions:- Matt Ryan (QB, Atlanta), Roddy White (WR, Atlanta), Hakeem Nicks (WR, Giants), Adrian Peterson (RB, Vikings), Arian Foster (RB, Texans), Clay Matthews (OLB, Packers), Cameron Wake (OLB, Dolphins)

2 comments:

  1. Interesting blog, I reckon I might follow it.

    How can you put Manning in but leave off Aaron Rodgers? He is probably the 3rd/4th best QB in the NFL and was awesome last year and carried it into this year. If not in the 4 you mentioned he should definitely be in the 'honourable mentions' section.

    Position wise you missed off:
    QB - Rodgers, Brees, Orton who are all having better years than Manning.
    RB - Charles, Jones-Drew
    WR - Lloyd, Johnson, Wayne , T.O.

    No defensive player will win (even though sometimes they should), Wake and Matthews have not got the ability outside of sacks to be considered in any MVP voting.

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  2. Cheers for the comment.

    When this was written (which was a bit before it was posted) These were easily the leading 4 guys based on what previous MVPs have been awarded for. Brees/Rodgers/Orton might be have been having better statistical seasons but the Colts had so many issues on both sides of the ball that Manning's performances had merited inclusion.

    I agree that Non-QB's should get more consideration that they do (eg Chris Johnson last year) but unfortunately this is the way of things in the current NFL.

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