Another turbulent week is in the books. New England and Indy played out another classic while Brad Childress got shown the door in Minnesota after another heavy loss to a division rival. Vince Young lost his head after being told his thumb injury was too severe to be allowed to continue and stormed away from the field. While the owners have said that both Vince and Head Coach Jeff Fisher will be there next season it has wrecked what was a competitive season for the Titans.
This week has a full set of Thanksgiving games on Thursday and some big match-ups between major contenders. The Bears and Eagles face off with 7 wins a piece while Green Bay travel to the NFC best Atlanta Falcons. So let’s get down to it. Home team in caps.
New England Patriots (-6.5) over DETROIT LIONS (Thursday 5:30pm, Sky Sports 3)
The Patriots had their way with the Colts for the first three quarters on Sunday before taking their foot off and allowing Manning back into it. Detroit meanwhile continue to play tough but not get the rub of the green. The short week and impending clash with the Jets next week could be tough for the Patriots, but they were caught looking ahead against Cleveland and there’s no way a Belichick team makes the same mistake twice. Brady continues to look imperious behind a fantastic offensive line while their rookie class continues to impress.
New Orleans Saints (-3.5) over DALLAS COWBOYS
The Cowboys got their first home win of the season last week against the Lions while New Orleans kept pace in the NFC South with a home win over Seattle. Dallas look rejuvenated in the absence of Wade Phillips so this is has the makings of a good game. New Orleans continue to look off their game. Brees is launching touchdowns but also interceptions while their injury list is quite a full one. It’ll be a closer game that the two records suggest but the Saints D will be a tougher opposition for Kitna and won’t make him look like a superstar. Dallas ended the Saints perfect season in 2009; expect a revenge factor for New Orleans.
NEW YORK JETS (-9) over Cincinnati Bengals
The Jets continue to pull out last second wins. Sunday’s comeback against Houston was a display of dreadful defense on the part of the Texans more than great play by the Jets. However these sort of wins instil a confidence in a team that they can always get it done, and Sanchez did throw some perfect balls on that drive. As for the Bengals – wow. They’re really playing up to their nickname of “Bungles” now. From 31-14 at half-time they conceded 35 points unanswered in the second half. Injuries in the secondary didn’t help but it’s really inexcusable. Palmer was locked in on TO and rookie Jordan Shipley in the 4th quarter. Ignoring an often open Chad Ochocinco which only served to anger the Wide-Out. The expected cracks of having two big egos seem to be showing after Chad’s twitter outburst after the game.
ATLANTA FALCONS (-2) over Green Bay Packers (Sunday 5:30pm, Sky Sports 2)
Simply a huge game. Atlanta are incredibly tough at home and a win here will go a long way towards securing home play-off games. Aaron Rodgers has found some of his 2009 form and is lighting it up with Greg Jennings at the moment. They embarrassed the Vikings last week and will need to repeat that performance if they want to come away from the Georgia Dome with a win. Clay Matthews continues to terrorize opposing quarterbacks but the Atlanta offensive line has protected Ryan well this year. The Packers move Matthews around a lot so identifying where he is will be crucial to protection assignments. Michael Turner could be the key here; if he can get it going early then Ryan can work the play-action and keep the Packers linebackers on the back foot.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-6) over BUFFALO BILLS
Buffalo might be full of confidence after back to back wins. They were able to stick with the Ravens five weeks ago and have enough to, in theory, stick around for a while against Pittsburgh. The Steelers know they can’t afford a slip up, the race in the AFC is hotting up now and home field advantage is going to be key come the play-offs. Pittsburgh put in a great performance against Oakland and could just as likely stifle the Bills with their swarming defense. WR Steve Johnson has become Fitzpatrick’s go to guy and the pair have put up impressive numbers but this is where the Bill’s run of form ends I’m afraid.
TEXANS (NL) over Titans
No line for this one due to the uncertainty surrounding the Titans Quarterback situation. Kerry Collins, who is now the number 1 guy, is still a few weeks away from full fitness so it looks like Rusty Smith is going to be playing on Sunday. He couldn’t really have a better match up for his first NFL start than Houston - who look incapable of stopping a passing attack lead by myself at the moment. Arian Foster, the NFL’s leading rusher, gives the Texans great balance on offense which will be needed against a Titans D that lives to pressure the QB.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+7) over NEW YORK GIANTS
No Hakeem Nicks equals serious problems for the Giants. The star Wide Receiver is going to be out for the next 2-3 weeks. The injury comes at a time when the receiving corps is already thin and will be very damaging to the offense. Jacksonville played tough against Cleveland and pulled out the win on a well-designed screen to Maurice Jones-Drew. He and Garrard have hit form at together for the first time in a while and that makes them a tricky team to negotiate. Surprise leaders of the AFC South; the Jags have only won road games in Dallas and Buffalo. This would be a pretty big scalp for them to go into the New Meadowlands and come out with a win.
Minnesota Vikings (+2.5) over WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Brad Childress lost the dressing room long before he lost his job. Defensive Coordinator Leslie Frazier is promoted to interim Head Coach and could well have the same rejuvenating affect that Jason Garrett has had in Dallas. Washington remain an enigma. They needed over-time to beat the Rusty Smith led Titans and their D can be as leaky as a colander at times. If the Vikes feed the ball to Peterson and let him do his thing it could be over very quickly. But if Brett Favre gets heavily involved then who knows what will happen. The commentators haven’t said “he’s having fun out there” for a long time now. Any other QB would have been benched a while ago for the performances he’s put in.
Another no line due to quarterbacks. Colt McCoy picked up an ankle injury last weekend which means the promising rookie might have to sit for a healthy Jake Delhomme, who would be facing a team he tormented for years with untimely interceptions and generally bad play. Carolina continue to play terrible football and seem set for the 1st pick in the 2011 draft. This line could be -14 and I’d still take a Delhomme lead Browns team. I’m not sure how Denver could have had Peyton Hillis in training every week and not think this guy could play, but their mistake is Cleveland’s gain and every week he makes the Browns front office look like the smartest guys in the room.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7.5) over BALTIMORE RAVENS
Tampa stepped up on defense last week and handed the 49ers their first home shut out for 33 years while Baltimore trampled on Carolina. The Ravens sport a very balanced offense and the defensive talent to really test Josh Freeman and his band of gutsy young players. I can really see this one staying close. The Bucs have an energy about them that is rarely seen in the Pros and reflects a young team full of confidence and if this game is close going into the 4th quarter they could even steal a victory here. This game also boasts two of the defensive old guard. Ray Lewis and Ronde Barber have 29 years of NFL experience between them and still look as fresh as ever.
Philadelphia Eagles (-3) over CHICAGO BEARS (Sunday 9pm, Sky Sports 2)
The Michael Vick show was put on hold against New York on Sunday night. The Giants focused on keeping him under wraps. Which was great until LeSean McCoy, the forgotten man of the Eagles offense, popped up with his 2nd 100+ yard game of the season and the Philly defense sprung into life. The Eagles are a team on a roll at the moment. Chicago’s defense is one of the toughest in the league and they’re coming of a long week after shutting out the Dolphins on Thursday. They’ve got the offense working better than previously but I don’t think they have the speed on defense to cope with Vick and all the weapons around him.
OAKLAND RAIDERS (NL) over Miami Dolphins
Tyler Thigpen is 1-11 as a starter and Chad Henne is battling to be healthy. The Dolphins play calling was terrible. Including scrambles and sacks Miami called in 41 passes to 7 rushes. Unbelievable when you have a 3rd string QB in and the game wasn’t out of reach until the 4th quarter. As for Oakland, the only highlight of their drubbing from the Steelers was Richard Seymour’s straight right hand to the chin of Ben Roethlisberger that David Haye would be proud of. Oakland still have a shot at the division crown if they start stringing performances together.
Kansas City Chiefs (-1) over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
The Chiefs have to win this one. San Diego is applying a lot of pressure in the division now and there’s little to no chance that they can get a wildcard slot. Kansas has the number 1 rushing attack in the NFL which usually serves a road team well but that hasn’t been the case so far. Seattle plays much better at home than on the road so don’t expect the same lame duck performance they put in against the Saints. However they are still a bad team. The Chiefs can control the clock and quieten the fans with Charles and Jones, while Bowe now leads the league in receiving Touchdowns. It should all be too much for Seattle to compete with.
Who knows which Broncos team you’re going to get these days. Their opening drive on MNF was a thing of beauty, the rest of the performance was all beast. Brian Dawkins looked very old and we might be seeing the end of a great player. The Rams meanwhile played the Falcons tough for the majority of last week’s game. If they can find Sam Bradford some receivers they could be a competitive team for years to come. The Rams haven’t won of the road in an age and Mile High is usually the hardest place to travel too but there’s a lot of negativity in Denver at the moment. Patience is running low for Josh McDaniels. He clearly knows how to design an offense, but whether or not he can run a team is another matter.
San Diego Chargers (+3) over INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (Monday 1:30am, Channel 4)
The Chargers have owned the Colts recently. Sunday night’s loss to the Patriots proved that this team will go as far as Peyton Manning can drag them. Rivers will be salivating while watching the game tape. The Patriots did whatever they wanted on offense, and the way he’s playing at the moment things could get ugly for the Colts on defense. The Chargers are finally playing like a team with league leading stats across the board. Shaun Phillips had a great game against Denver and will be key to stopping Manning.
San Francisco 49ers (-1) over ARIZONA CARDINALS
This is an ugly match-up for prime time. Neither are playing good football. I’m taking Troy Smith and Frank Gore here because they’ve shown that vs a bad D they can get points on the board and oh boy is Arizona playing bad defense at the moment. Troy Smith can make things happen with his feet and until last week looked the part. Arizona are on a terrible 0-5 streak and Derek Anderson has thrown just 7 touchdowns on the year. An early night all round here I think!
Last week: 11-4-1
I could not hope for a more comprehensive take on the NFL Picks. Awesome.
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