NFC South 2011

My good friend Gur Samuel breaks down what to expect from the NFC South division in 2011 in excruciating detail. If you think you know about this division, think again!!

There is arguably no better division in the NFL right now than the NFC South. It’s a big claim, but a fair one:

• The NFC South was the only division to have three teams with ten or more wins in 2010
• The NFC South was the only division where all teams were better than the average for total defence (5376.8 yards – the Panthers, worst total defence in the division, gave up 5374 yards)
• The NFC South was one of only two divisions to have three starting quarterbacks finish with a passer rating of 90 or more (the other being the AFC South, and one of their three quarterbacks, David Garrard, is holding onto his starting job for dear life)
• The fourth starting quarterback in the division was the first overall pick in the 2011 draft. In this QB-driven league, does any division have a better collection of signal callers – even if Cam Newton proves a bust in Carolina?

You could further argue that, since the NFL was re-aligned into eight divisions in 2002, there has not been a better or more competitive division in the league. Some facts about the division since it was formed:

• No division has had more teams (3) appear in Super Bowls than the NFC South
• The NFC South also is tied for most appearances in Super Bowls since 2002 (also 3)
• The NFC South is the only division where no team has finished either first or fourth in two consecutive seasons
• The NFC South has been very much the ‘worst-to-first’ division; since it was formed, only twice has the team that finished last not gone to win the division the next season  and even then, those teams finished with double-digit wins (the 11-5 Falcons in 2008 and the 10-6 Buccaneers in 2010)
• Six of the nine division winners have had first week byes in the playoffs – more than any other division

So, what can we expect of such a talented and competitive division? More than perhaps any other division, the NFC South has proven to be the hardest to predict – but I’ll give it a shot, anyway.

First, let’s look at each team individually:

     - Atlanta Falcons

2010 Record: 13-3

Finished: 1^st

Playoffs: No. 1 seed, first round bye, lost in divisional round to the Green Bay Packers 48-21

Dominant Storyline for 2011: ‘The Draft-Day Trade’

Can Julio Jones (#8) live up to the billing?

It may seem strange to say that the team which finished with the best record in the conference may have the largest need to silence doubters; but I believe the storyline of the 2011 Falcons season will be dominated by one thing: their huge gamble in the 2011 draft. The Falcons wanted one of the premier wide receivers in the draft class, feeling their offense lacked explosiveness; knowing the AJ Green and Julio Jones would likely both be drafted in the first ten picks, and with Atlanta slated to have the 27^th pick, general manager Thomas Dimitroff pulled off a stunning trade with the Cleveland Browns, holders of the 6^th overall pick. They got Jones, but he came at a hefty price: the Falcons traded to the Browns their first round pick; their second round pick; their fourth round pick; their first round pick in the 2012 draft; and their fourth round pick in the 2012 draft. Falcons fans, if your team doesn’t perform as well as expected, prepare to hear this trade brought up constantly by commentators and pundits; even if Jones lives up to his full potential, should the defence play poorly (remember that playoff game?), or if the offensive line struggle, the Falcons have given away opportunities to restock. Of course, if this season ends in a Lombardi trophy, Dimitroff will be crowned a front office genius – still, you have to wonder, if free agency had begun in March as usual, and the Eagles had assembled their ‘dream team’ *cough* pre-draft, would the Falcons have attempted such a ballsy trade? Leave your thoughts in the comments section.

Strengths:

     - The Air Game

As I already stated, the NFC South is a division of QBs, and the Falcons have one of the best young ones in the game in Matt Ryan. Coming of his third consecutive winning season – in a franchise that had never posted two back-to-back seasons with a plus-.500 record – Ryan has the trust and belief of his teammates, his coaches and his front office. The Falcons’ passing game should only get better this year, with Julio Jones stretching the field, and taking the top of the coverage for 2010 reception-leader Roddy White and arguably the greatest tight end ever (and, according to us, sure-fire first-ballot Hall of Famer) Tony Gonzalez. Even Harry Douglas looks to have kicked his game up a notch working out of the slot receiver position instead of playing on the outside. As long as the offensive line hold up (more on that later), Atlanta should pose a huge threat in the passing game.

     - The Secret Weapon

Brent Grimes (#20) secures another interception

Who is the most underrated cornerback in the NFL? Obviously, the answer is subjective, but for my money, the answer is Brent Grimes. The former Hamburg Sea Devil had a fantastic 2010, and potentially changed NFL history by sealing a victory over the Bucs – god, this is painful to type – by intercepting Josh Freeman inside the two-minute warning at the end of the game (had the Bucs had one more victory last year, they would have won the final wild card spot in the NFC instead of eventual Super Bowl winners Green Bay). Despite Dunta Robinson being the Falcons’ big free agency signing in the pre-season, it was Grimes who, according to the wonderful folk over at Football Outsiders, allowed the joint-3^rd least amount of yards per pass play at 5.0 yards, despite being targeted over 100 times over the season. He’s also clutch: four of his five interceptions last year came in the second half; more importantly, four of his five interceptions came when the Falcons were behind, giving Matt Ryan a chance to come back. The level of play and consistency that Grimes brings to Atlanta cannot be understated – a fact the front office realised, rewarding him with a new contract this offseason. Atlanta’s depth at cornerback is questionable – just ask the Packers; but at least the Falcons know that they have one stud at the position.

Weaknesses:

Having already mentioned cornerback depth, I’m going to put down two question marks, rather than out and out weaknesses:

     - Can the O-Line Keep It Up?

Last year, Michael Turner ran for over 1300 yards on a league-leading 334 attempts. That workload would be tough on a younger back; Turner is 29 this season. Having lost five games to injury in 2009, the Falcons are counting on their offensive line to keep Turner healthy, and, by resigning right tackle Tyson Clabo, are returning four of their five starting linemen from last year. What would worry me if I was a Falcons fan is who they let go: Harvey Dahl. Dahl is a fantastic guard, and was a large part of Turner’s success. The middle of the line could be a potential weakness this season: Todd McClure is a good centre, but is getting old; plugged in next to him, replacing Dahl is Garrett Reynolds. Never heard of him? Don’t feel too bad – in his career, he has appeared in four regular season games, starting none, all in 2009, his rookie season. Having been drafted by the Falcons. As a tackle. If McClure’s age starts to show, don’t expect Michael Turner to finish the season.

     - Proving the Pass-Rush

Let me take nothing away from John Abraham: he had a beastly 2010, finishing with 13 sacks – good for 5^th best in the league – went to the Pro Bowl, and was selected an Associated Press All-Pro. But cast your eye a little further back: in 2009, Abraham had just 5 and a half sacks, despite starting two more games than he did in 2010. You’ve also got to take into consideration that Abraham is not a young guy – he’s 33, to be precise. Was 2009 an off-year? Or will 2010 prove to have been the anomaly in the aging process? On the other side of the line is former Viking Ray Edwards, signed by the Falcons in free agency. Edwards puts up good stats, but there’s always been one criticism levelled at him – his play has been hugely enhanced playing on the same line as Jared Allen and the ‘Williams Wall’. Is it a fair statement? We’ll know by the end of the season. Both defensive ends had great and good seasons respectively last year – yet both still have something to prove.

Standout Player of the Year:

Brent Grimes. If the Falcons’ O-line is soft in the middle, they’ll need a playmaker on the other side of the ball to get back possession. Expect Grimes to rise to the challenge.

Disappointing Player of the Year:

Michael Turner. The Falcons’ game plan will rely on running early to draw safeties into the box and set up the play-action; if the O-line can’t protect him, Turner will not come close to repeating last year’s performance.

How’s the Schedule Looking?

The Falcons start out rough, facing four playoff teams in their first five weeks, including a prime time showdowns against reigning champions Green Bay – with the fifth game being an in-division game away at the Bucs, who finished with 10 wins last season and had two very fiercely contested, very close games with Atlanta. Things get easier towards the end of the season, with the team potentially seeing four rookie quarterbacks between weeks 11-15, but end the season with back-to-back division games that could well be the difference in securing a playoff spot, facing the Saints in the Superdome before hosting the Bucs in the final week of the season – don’t be surprised if this game gets flexed to primetime.

Predicted finish: 11-5

     - Carolina Panthers

2010 Record: 2-14

Finished: 4^th

Dominant Storyline for 2011: ‘Can Cam Quarterback Carolina?’

Can Cam lead from Day 1?

In the 2010 draft, the Panthers used their first pick (a 2^nd rounder, having traded away their 1^st round pick) to take Notre Dame QB Jimmy Clausen. He gave the Panthers a 1:3 TD:INT ratio and a 1-9 record as a starter. And so, with the first overall pick in the 2011 draft, the Panthers selected Cam Newton, coming off a ridiculous season which saw him winning the Heismann Trophy, the BCS National Championship with Auburn, and putting up FIFTY ONE TOUCHDOWNS – 30 through the air, 20 with his feet, and, just to take the piss, one receiving, too. And yet, I really did not like the pick. Newton, for all the he is undoubtedly a phenomenal athlete, is a raw prospect for an NFL QB. He needs time to learn the pro game, to look to his second read if his first is covered rather than instinctively running the ball, and to work on his accuracy inside the pocket (Newton has averaged just 45.5% completion rating through the preseason). If there had been free agency prior to the draft, perhaps the Panthers would have looked to sign a veteran, and used their first round pick on, say, Marcell Dareus, who could have offered them an inside pass rush not seen in Carolina since Kris Jenkins, or perhaps AJ Green, who, coupled with Steve Smith, could have wreaked havoc on opposing secondaries. Instead, they took a quarterback who will not be ready for the pro game in week one, especially with such a truncated off season. Even if you were convinced that Newton is a future elite QB, I am truly baffled by the decision of Matt Hurney, the Panthers GM, to not bring in a veteran to start at least the first part of the season. I don’t buy the argument that the fans would ‘put pressure’ on the team to start Newton right away because of where he was drafted– or else the Titans wouldn’t have signed Matt Hasselbeck, the Vikings wouldn’t have traded for Donovan McNabb, and Tim Tebow sure as hell wouldn’t be struggling to convince his team he’s worthy of being active on game days, let alone starting. But the Panthers are 100% behind Cam, and the tale of the Panthers 2011 season will be the tale of Cam Newton.

Strengths

     - The Most Underrated Line in Football?

The casual NFL fan would look at the Panthers 2-14 record last season, and would no doubt think that it is a team with a roster full of holes, and as the team finished with the worst-ranked offense in the league last season – in both points scored and yards gained – the casual fan might think, “well, they’re offensive line can’t be very good, then”. Oh, how wrong that casual fan is. As we’ve already discussed on The Pulling Linemen, the Panthers O-line is actually a damned good one, with some very nice pieces – namely former All-Pro tackle Jordan Gross, former first round pick Jeff Otah, and one of the best young centres in the game in Ryan Kalil, whom the Panthers chose to slap with the franchise tag this year rather than risk losing him in free agency (he was subsequently signed to a six-year contract that will make Kalil the highest-paid NFL centre in league history in per-year average). The Carolina offensive line in 2008 allowed for DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart to become the first ever set of teammates to both rush for over 1300 yards in the same season; four of the starters in that season are still with the team (the three previously mentioned, plus guard Travelle Wharton). If the Panthers have one true strength this season – and that could potentially be the case – it lies in the offensive line.

Weaknesses

     - Quarterback Conundrum

What else were you expecting? I can make this weakness pretty brief: Cam’s too raw for the NFL. Clausen’s too bad for the NFL. Former franchise QB Jake Delhomme is still out there on the open market. And who did the Panthers choose to sign as their ‘veteran’ QB backup? Derek Anderson. Derek Bloody Anderson. Derek ‘got benched twice for rookies last season’ Anderson. Derek ‘MNF press conference meltdown’ Anderson. Yeh, have fun with that Panthers fans.

     - Wide-out Washout

The Panthers have one good wide receiver – a very old Steve Smith, who averaged under 40 yards a game last season, and didn’t catch a touchdown pass after week 2. The Panthers did pick up Jeremy Shockey and Greg Olsen in free agency, but you’d ideally not want to see Carolina running two-tight end sets every snap as a necessity rather than a choice. David Gettis had potentially, but unfortunately he will be watching the 2011 season from the IR list. Oh, and related to the previous weakness: without a real receiving threat, and a rookie QB, defensive co-ordinators will be routinely putting eight in the box against the Panthers. This means one thing: Cam Newton will be find out very, very quickly why spread-style running QBs don’t have much success in the NFL. Pain-wise.

Standout Player of the Year:

Can Johnson keep getting to the QB?

Charles Johnson – maybe. For all that the Panthers offense was, well, atrocious, their defence was relatively decent, under the circumstances, being below the league average in yards conceded, and having the 11^th best passing defence in the NFL. They had, for the most part, two real stars on defence – established linebacking threat Jon Beason, and a breaking-out Charles Johnson, who got himself 11.5 sacks. Johnson got a massive contract to stay with the Panthers, so he’ll be looking to prove he was worth the money. Too bad for him, the task just got a bit harder: Jon Beason is undergoing foot surgery, could miss the season opener, and likely will not have the opportunity to truly get over the surgery until the season is over. It’s on you, Johnson: will you step up?

Disappointing Player of the Year:

In case you didn’t guess by now, I’m picking Cam Newton. I think I’ve already expressed my reasons why sufficiently.

How’s the Schedule Looking?

The Panthers must be thanking to NFL office so much for starting their season off against the third-worst run defence in the NFL last year. If their O-line and run game allows them to control the clock, and Johnson can generate some pass-rush on defence, they have a shot at starting the season 1-0. It’s a shame that a week 2 matchup with the Packers will bring them crashing back down to earth, hard. After that? Well, um, there’s the Redskins in week 8, although they have looked pretty damned impressive in the preseason (we’ll see how well that carries over to real games, however). Stafford could well be injured by the time the game against the Lions in week 11 rolls around, and the line is actually good enough to handle the Lions’ fearsome foursome up front. If Peyton’s healthy by week 12, however, Panthers fans may want to avoid football altogether until 2012 – the last six games of the season are against the Colts, Bucs, Falcons, Texans, Bucs again, and the Saints. Have fun with that.

Prediction: 2-14; MAYBE 4-12 if both Stafford and Manning are injured again/still injured when they play them. Even then, I don’t fancy their chances.

     - New Orleans Saints

Dominant Storyline for 2011: Can Championship Form Be Found?

The Saints were definitely not as good in 2010 as in 2009. Instead of remaining undefeated through the first 13 weeks of the season, they managed the first two. Drew Brees through twice as many interceptions as the previous year; his passer rating dropped almost 20 points. The defence went from 2^nd in turnovers to 21^st – from 29 interceptions to a league-worst 9. And, despite all this, the Saints finished the season 11-5, and were in contention for a first week bye right up until the final game of the regular season (of course, that was dependent on the Panthers beating the Falcons, so not really. But theoretically…). The Saints still have most of the pieces of their championship-winning team in place. Heath Evans wasn’t offered a new contract by the team, neither was Darren Sharper; but fullbacks are increasingly redundant in the NFL today, and Malcolm Jenkins is going to be a long term starter for New Orleans, making Sharper superfluous. Reggie Bush was traded away, but the team signed Darren Sproles, who can do all the miss-match stuff almost as well as Bush, whilst being far better running between the tackles. Jeremy Shockey was released, but only because Jimmy Graham proved last year he can be just as good. Only Scott Fujita and Jon Stinchcomb have arguably not been fully replaced from the 2009 team (Stinchcomb being released only three days before the Saints put free agency pickup Alex Barron on injured reserve. To be fair, it’s probably a decent trade-off between a potential weakness at right tackle, and not having all those penalty flags). And, most important of all, Sean Payton is still calling the plays, and Drew Brees is still throwing the ball. With no team having back-to-back Super Bowl wins since the ’03-’04 Patriots, Who Dat Nation will no doubt have tolerated a ‘Super Bowl hangover’. But now, with so many of the same pieces in place, and with, for the first time in years, something approaching a true no. 1 running back in rookie Mark Ingram, there really should be no excuse, short of injuries, for anything less than a deep playoff run.

Is another Lombardi too much to ask?

Strengths:

     - Um, Elite QB Much?

Drew Brees. If I even need to explain it to you, you don’t care enough about football to even be reading this blog. Yes, I said his passer rating dropped almost 20 points last season from the one before. And it did. From 109.6 to 90.6. Enough said.

     - Williams Brings the Heat

Gregg Williams, the Saints’ defensive co-ordinator, loves him some blitz. Just ask Brett Favre in the 09 championship game – his ankle was more purple than his uniform. Or, if you want a more recent example, track down the preseason game two weeks ago against the 49ers. The defence was not the turnover machine it once was last season, but Williams is going to try his damndest to get back to that form – and that’s going to mean bringing the heat. The Saints picked up Cameron Jordan to bring some traditional DE pass-rush across the line from Will Smith, whilst the Saints went big-body hunting in free agency, picking up Shaun Rodgers and Aubrayo Franklin to clog up running lanes, and let Sedrick Ellis bring some of that inside-upfield pressure. Of course, Rodgers and Franklin have both played in 3-4 defences – so don’t be surprised if Williams throws in some three-man-line packages, letting him dabble with even more exotic blitz schemes. Williams will be bringing the pressure hard this season – as long as the DBs do their job, you won’t be seeing the Saints end up with a single-digit interception total this year.

Weaknesses:

     - Right Tackle

The Saints picked up a right tackle in free agency, let their incumbent starter go, then put the new acquisition on IR. It will be interesting to see what they do there.

Yeah, I don’t have much. I’m very high on the Saints this season. As a Bucs fan, I wish I wasn’t, but there you go. I am, sadly, expecting them to be pretty dominant this year.

Standout Player of the Year:

Brees is too obvious, so I’m going to go with Mark Ingram – my preseason pick for the 2011 Offensive Rookie of the Year. No defensive co-ordinator is going to dare bring eight men into the box against Drew Brees – and Ingram’s going to benefit hugely from that. Chris Ivory, who carried the rock when both Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush were struggling with injuries last year, is currently on the PUP list. Darren Sproles is scat-back, he can run it between the tackles but you don’t want to do that too often. Mark Ingram has the potential to be a true no. 1 back, and Sean Payton, offensive genius that he undoubtedly is, is going to find a way to use that at every opportunity. He’s also been receiving goal line carries in the preseason, so I think Ingram is in for a fantastic rookie season.

Disappointing Player of the Year:

How do you decide on a disappoint player of the year on a team which has no discernible weakness? Oh, what the hell. Drew Brees, because he won’t get his QB rating above 100, it’ll be somewhere in the high 90s instead.

How’s the Schedule Looking?

The Saints kick off the whole 2011 NFL Season against the Green Bay Packers, followed by an iffy Bears team who you still can’t completely write off thanks to their 12-4 record and appearance in the NFC Championship game (unless, of course, Cutler’s inactive for that game with a fractured corpus unguis. Google it.), before taking on a sure-to-be-improved (yet really not that troubling) Houston Texans. Peyton Manning might be back in action by the time the Colts come into the Superdome in week 7, but he won’t be the Manning of old. The game away at the Rams could prove to be a classic ‘trap’ game, so that’s one to keep an eye on; the Saints follow that with welcoming the Bucs to Louisiana – don’t be surprised to see the Saints lose that one either, but I’ll explain why later on. Finally, in week 16 the Saints are at home to the Falcons, who will be in the thick of a playoff chase, a game that will definitely be a challenge. There should be no other games that the Saints should lose at all.

Prediction: 13-3

     - Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2010 Record: 10-6

Finished: 3^rd

Wow. This piece is already at 4000 words and I’ve not even started talking about the Bucs yet. I’ll TRY and keep this as brief. But no promises.

Dominant Storyline of 2011: ‘Prove It.’

The Bucs youngsters need to keep improving

You know the story. But I’m telling it again anyway (damn, broke the promise already). The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were 9-3 heading into their final four games of the 2008 season, having won the division the previous year. One more win would see them in the playoffs; instead, the defence fell apart, they lost four straight, and missed out on the postseason. Jon Gruden, the head coach who brought Tampa Bay its only Lombardi trophy, was fired, along with general manager Bruce Allen. Legendary defensive co-ordinator Monte Kiffin was leaving the NFL to join his son’s coaching staff at the University of Tennessee. Defensive Backs Coach Raheem Morris, already named to take over DC once Kiffin left, was chosen to replace Gruden; long-time Director of Pro Personnel Mark Dominik was named general manager. Morris & Dominik cleaned shop, releasing several veterans, including all-time Bucs great Derrick Brooks. After flirting with the free agency splurging of their predecessors, picking up Derrick Ward on a $17 million contract (!) and reportedly out-bidding the Redskins for Albert Haynesworth (!!!!!!! – Fat Albert said that he would be ‘too distracted in Tampa’. If he was ‘focused’ in Washington…), Morris & Dominik decided they would build through the draft, to put together a lasting contender. With their first pick in their first draft, they drafted Josh Freeman – the unquestionable future of this franchise. That season, however, was torturous for Bucs fans as they went 3-13. No-one predicted the Bucs would finish better than 5-11 in 2010 – and that was one of the more optimistic predictions. All they did was go 10-6, pull off the best win-loss turnaround in franchise history, become the first team since the NFL-AFL merger to have first year players lead all rookies in both rushing and receiving, become the first to start 10 or more rookies over a season and finish with a winning record, have a quarterback who posted the ninth best TD/INT ratio in NFL history, and have a quarterback who had the second biggest year-on-year increase in his passer rating in NFL history – all with the youngest roster in the league. And yet, the doubters claim that it was a result of an ‘easy schedule’ (funny, it only differed from the Falcons’ and Saints’ schedule by two games, yet no-one ever seems to level this accusation at either of those teams. Just saying.); there is no question that the storyline for this the Bucs this year is to prove that they were not just the beneficiaries of a weak schedule, but that they are for real – that they really were that damn good. And, with only three players on their 90 man roster over 30, and with 74 of those 90 being under 25, they’re only going to get better. And they’re going to stay at that level for a long, long time.

Strengths:

     - The New Triplets

For years, the Bucs boasted one of the best defences in the NFL – the 2002 Bucs are arguably the greatest NFL defence of the recent past, with only the 2000 Ravens being able to lay a claim otherwise. But it wasn’t defence that won games for the Bucs last year – for the first time, the Bucs were an offense-driven team. Almost all great offenses are powered by ‘triplets’ (GSOT being an exception, they were really more ‘quadruplets’), a label first given to the Cowboys trio of Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith and Michael Irvin. It became clear last year that the Bucs have a set of triplets of their own in Josh Freeman, LeGarrette Blount and Mike Williams. Freeman put up ridiculous numbers: 25 TDs to only 6 INTs – over the last eight games, that was 15 TDs to just 1 pick (damn you Brent Grimes!). At 6’6”, 250lbs, Freeman is impossible to bring down – if you’re able to get your hands on him that is, having trailed only Michael Vick in QB rushing yards last season. And, talking about elusive, how ‘bout that LeGarrette Blount? You try tackling him, he runs through you; you try tackling him high, he leaps over you. Despite having all of 30 yards over the first five games last year, Blount ended up being only the second undrafted rookie to rush for over 1000 yards. Bring eight in the box to deal with Blount? Go ahead – leave Mike Williams uncovered. All he did was break the all-time franchise record for receiving touchdowns whilst becoming the first rookie WR since Randy Moss in 1998 to have double digit TDs. It’s a very, very exciting time to be a Bucs fan.

     - Rock Solid Secondary

The front seven was not good in the defence last year. I mean really not good. 28^th in run defence; 30^th in sacks; both areas that are primarily the responsibility of the D-line and the linebackers. And yet, the Bucs finished with the 7^th best pass defence in the league. THAT, my friends, is a goddamn solid secondary. According to that wonderful Football Outsiders article, Ronde Barber, the heart and soul of this defence, finished 8^th in yards per attempt allowed. EJ Biggers, nickel corner who started five games last season, finished 7^th in what FO term ‘success rate’ (denying WRs a certain amount of yards). Even if Roger Goodell suspends Talib for a few games next season due to… ‘extra-curricular’ activities, bear in mind that Talib missed five and a half games last season. The Bucs defence might not be what it once was, but the secondary is still up there with the best the NFL has to offer.

Weaknesses:

     - Run Over

Again, the front seven was not good last year. However, it should be a lot better this year, especially thanks to the very nice-looking defensive line the Bucs have been building, allowing the linebackers to do their thing and giving the secondary more chances to prove their awesomeness. However, whilst I’m drinking the Kool-Aid, I know that the Bucs need to prove, on tape, that they can stop the run, something they’ve massively struggled to do over the past two years. For now, you’ve got to say the run defence is still a weakness.

Tampa need consistency from Davin Joseph and his Line mates

     - Which Line Is It Anyway?

The two preseason games so far tell the tale of two very different offensive lines. There’s the one that gave Josh Freeman whole quarters to throw the ball (may be an exaggeration) against the Chiefs, and there’s the line that… didn’t give #5 quite as much time against New England. It’s only the preseason, so it’s too early to tell which line will be the one that shows up on actual game days. There’s no question there’s the potential for it to be the line that played in Kansas City, but whether they fulfil that potential, time will tell.

Standout Player of the Year:

#5. #5. #5. Josh Freechise. This team is squarely on the back of Freeman. Don’t get me wrong, there are some really, really nice pieces on this team, but like Jeff Bridges’ rug, it’s Freeman that ties the whole team together. I’m going to restrain myself from writing much more, because I could literally talk about Freeman for hours, so I’ll just say this: Josh Freeman is the sole reason the Bucs had the #20 pick in this year’s draft and not the #2 pick. Josh Freeman IS the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. And that’s all there is to it.

Disappointing Player of the Year:

Aqib Talib. Despite the fact his trial isn’t due to begin until March, Roger Goodell is likely to hand a suspension down to Talib anyway (I don’t know why. Maybe his parents didn’t hug him enough as a child). Anyway, even if Talib is proven completely innocent of all charges, he’s had a history of misconduct that should have made him stay away from that situation in the first place. So, Talib is my disappointing player for this year – because before the season’s even started, he let his emotions take control, and is likely to miss time as a result.

How’s the Schedule Looking?

The Bucs season begins with a huge grudge match against the Detroit Lions, who kept them out of the post season last year (well, them and an incompetent officiating crew). The Bucs will be looking to take revenge, the Bucs young D-line literally eat up Stafford. A trip to the Vikes should see the Bucs starting off 2-0, before a hard game at home against the Falcons could very easily go either way. The week 4 MNF game against the Colts should be in the Bucs favour with Manning likely to be off-form, if playing at all. The Bucs, of course, play the Bears at Wembley Stadium (you have no idea how much I’m looking forward to that), and that their cross-Atlantic trip is bookended with two games against the Saints should make for an interesting stretch. Of course, the Bucs have seemed to find a way to get under the Saints’ skin in the Superdome – with the 2009 Bucs becoming the first team with 12 or more losses to beat a team with 13 or more wins. The Bucs face the Saints away after their bye week, so expect a rejuvenated Bucs team to take this contest. Five of the Bucs’ final 7 games are on the road, but luckily, that includes both games against the Panthers, a Titans team that will either not have CJ, or will have Jake Locker under centre (no way the Titans agree to pay up until Hasselbeck goes down), and a Jaguars team that could likewise see Blaine Gabbert starting. The final game of the season will probably be the deciding factor in who gets the fifth and who gets the sixth seed in the playoffs (yeh, that’s right, I said it. Three NFC South teams in the playoffs in 2011 – it would have happened last year but for a bad refereeing call) and should be one of the best games you will see next year, of any team.

Prediction: 11-5

- Gur Samuel (@FredThePuppy)