After the NFC picture became a little clearer last week it’s time for the AFC to settle a few issues. Pittsburgh and Baltimore, tied at 8-3 for the AFC North lead, meet on Sunday Night Football while the AFC best Patriots and Jets (9-2) square off in Foxboro on Monday Night. Last week was very much a case of The Good, The Bad and The Ugly as San Diego put in a stellar team performance to beat the Colts, Cortland Finnegan and Andre Johnson traded punches and handed over $25,000 each in fines while the Arizona Cardinals were hide-behind-the-sofa ugly as they lost to the 49ers on Monday night. Week 13 means the start of december, where some teams flourish and others flounder. Home team in caps...
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-8) over Houston Texans (Friday 1am, Sky Sports 2)
Michael Vick’s cannon arm against a historically bad secondary? I’m sold. Vick threw his first pick of the year against the league’s toughest defense last week. This shouldn’t stop the highlight reel play though. As for Houston, they needed a game against Rusty Smith badly. They got a confidence boosting shut out Tennessee while moving the ball well against a good D. Arian Foster continues to lead the league in rushing and is on track to finish with an impressive 1,600+ yards. Just feed him the ball and things tend to go well, unfortunately Vick could drag Houston away from that plan.
TENNESSEE TITANS (+Collins) over Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars over TENNESSEE TITANS (+Smith) (Sunday 6pm, Sky Sports 4)
There’s no line on this due to the Quarterback situation. If Collins is fit and healthy then the Titans offense should click. If not we’ll see the same dud as last week where Chris Johnson had no room and the passing game was less threatening than a three year old with a sponge. Jacksonville SHOULD have won against the Giants, but they couldn’t put the game away and lost. It’s a must win for both teams with the AFC South up for grabs. I don’t know what they feed the defensive linemen over in Nashville but I want some, that is an impressive group of players year in and year out.
MIAMI DOLPHINS (-5) over Cleveland Browns
It looks like Jake Delhomme is the starter again as Colt McCoy is yet to get the all clear. Delhomme is still Delhomme and Miami’s D makes life tough for even the best QB’s so this is kind of a gimme. Henne fought his way back to fitness last week and looked good while Davone Bess is looking more and more like the go-to guy. The Dolphins running game has been a little disappointing this year but they still have the ability to grind out the tough yards. Peyton Hillis is just 6 scores away from Jim Brown’s franchise record of 16 in a season. Breaking it will probably be the biggest moment in Hillis’ career but he’s been a terror this season and deserves a lot more recognition than he’s getting.
Buffalo Bills (+5.5) over MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Adrian Peterson’s injury is a problem. He’s been the shining light of this team during the offensive and defensive line struggles and Favre’s failures. Rookie Toby Gerhart was able to pound the rock last week but only at 3.5 yards a carry, although against the Buffalo defense that could turn into 4.5-5. Interim coach Leslie Frazier has given the Vikings a bit of a boost, but Buffalo have been playing up to their opposition all year and are perfectly capable of keeping this close, and even winning if Steve Johnson can find his catching gloves again.
Washington Redskins (+7) over NEW YORK GIANTS
The banged up Giants stole win from Jacksonville last week and might just edge the ‘Skins here, but not cover. Given the Eagles probable win on Thursday the heat will be on the Giants to keep pace in the NFC East. The playoffs are a very long shot now for the ‘Skins but they’d love to play spoiler for the Giants here. The no-names playing running back in Washington is an issue now but Shanahan has shown before that his system can turn just about anyone into an ok rusher, and that will be key to staying in this one. They won’t be able to have Donovan McNabb throw it 40+ times and win. He’s just not that guy anymore.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-9) over Denver Broncos
You never know which Denver team you’re going to get. Todd Haley officially HATES Josh McDaniels after the whole “finger point instead of handshake” incident in week 10. Kansas are the form team out of the 2 with Dwayne Bowe having the best 7 game stretch for a Wide Receiver not named Jerry Rice ever. 49 catches for 670 and 13 touchdowns. Incredible. He’ll be matched up against the formerly invisible Champ Bailey, but recently he and a lot of the Broncos defense have looked old and a step off the pace. It’s also hard to tell how this who “spygate II” will affect this team on the field. In New England it instilled an “us against the world” mentality that was successful. Here though the team seem much less behind the Head Coach. It will be very interesting viewing.
Chicago Bears (-5) over DETROIT LIONS
Chicago look good now. In beating Philly they established themselves as a real contender in the NFC. The offensive line has stepped up and as a result the whole O is clicking much better while the D continues to play as well as it did during the ’06 superbowl run. Detroit are coming of a long week after losing to New England on thanksgiving. They had a good first half in that game with the impressive defensive line getting good pressure. Something they will need to do in order to slow down the now confident Bears. Also, don’t kick to Hester. I don’t know why teams insist on doing it. It’s far too dangerous and gives a big lift to the whole Chicago team when he makes a big return.
GREEN BAY PACKERS (-9) over San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco’s performance against Arizona has to be looked at in isolation. The Cards had a mare of a day at the office. Frank Gore’s injury is a big one, he’s the heart and soul of that offense and helped take the weight off Troy Smith’s shoulders. With him out Smith will have to make more plays, and against this defense it’ll be very difficult. Aaron Rodgers has rediscovered his 2009 touch and the Packers were very close to walking out of Atlanta with a win. They’re rounding into form but need to keep collecting wins for a meaningful week 17 game against Chicago.
New Orleans Saints (-6.5) over CINCINNATI BENGALS
The Saints might be the least talked about defending champions in a long time but they’re quietly piling up the wins and are in a tight battle for the NFC South or a wild card spot. Brees is tied for the league lead in touchdown throws now, and although his numbers aren’t as eye-popping as in previous years he’s still playing very well. Cincinnati are in a terrible state at the moment and Marv Lewis will be lucky to hold onto his job this off-season (although that’s been said before during his tenure with the Bengals, and he’s still there somehow).
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-13) over Oakland Raiders (Sunday 9pm, Sky Sports 4)
Oakland are a curious team. At times they’ve been great and other times bad. Last week they were awful. The flip-flopping between Jason Campbell and Bruce Gradkowski hasn’t aided to any sense of continuity on offense, they need to pick one and stick with him. As for San Diego they made a real statement with their treatment of Peyton Manning last week. They’re finally playing up to the talent on the team. Rivers is unbeaten in December during the regular season and The Bolts are capable of winning out. It’s been a classic Chargers 2nd half lead by Rivers, who is a front runner for MVP at the moment.
Atlanta Falcons (-3) over TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
A tricky one. Atlanta squeeze out wins playing unspectacular but consistent football . Tampa are yet to get a win over a team with a winning record but themselves look like a good team, young and full of confidence. Both sides play mistake free, percentage football and stay in games. I think the trio of Ryan, White and Turner will be just too much for the Bucs to handle. But if the game is on the line in the last 2 minutes and Josh Freeman has the football don’t be surprised to see an upset here. A lose doesn't knock the Bucs out of playoff contention but will make the week 17 trip the the superdome a must win, and that's something they could do without.
Carolina Panthers (+6) over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Carolina have looked better (not hard) but recently while Seattle have just spiralled downwards, giving up a staggering 33 points a game in the last 5 weeks. Seattle’s QWEST Field is one of the few places in the NFL with a real home field advantage which helped earlier in the season, but the 12th man affect hasn’t helped recently. This game can swing either way, Seattle are one of those teams that can play well or badly, but when 2 bad teams meet like this just take the points.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-5) over Dallas Cowboys
The Colts need a win. It really isn’t often you get to say that either. After big loses to New England and San Diego the Colts find themselves in and unfamiliar battle for the division that is usually wrapped up by now. Peyton Manning is trying too hard. He has been forcing the ball and making bad choices the last 2 weeks due to a lack of running game and porous defense. Manning needs to calm down and relax, although it’s not that easy when your guard gets bullrushed back and ends up sacking you. Dallas seem to be back to themselves. Garrett has fixed the attitude problems (for now) and both sides of the ball clicking. While the playoffs aren’t a possibility they can play spoiler to a lot of teams now and along with Cleveland are probably the team people want to avoid.
St. Louis Rams (-3) over ARIZONA CARDINALS
These are teams going in opposite directions quickly. The win in Denver last week was a massive step forward for Bradford and the Rams while Arizona didn’t so much go backwards last week as turn tail and run away from the NFL. It was a truly awful display on Monday Night and they were rightly booed by the fans in Glendale. If anyone needs to draft a QB early in April it’s the Cardinals, and with the way they’re going they should be able to get their hands on one of the top names. Bradford is looking so comfortable in the NFL it’s staggering, especially when you think of what a shambles this club was last year. With the way Westbrook was finding running room against the Arizona D Steven Jackson could have a career day.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) over BALTIMORE RAVENS (Monday 1:30am, Channel 4)
It’s a battle for the lead of the AFC North. Baltimore won the 1st meeting of these two earlier in the year but that was during Ben Roethlisberger’s suspension. And the Steelers with Big Ben are a different beast altogether. However after sustaining a foot injury the superbowl winning quarterback is a doubt to play. If he doesn’t then the Steelers game plan has to change (as does my pick!) and they’ll need to lean on Rashard Mendenhall all the more. On D these guys are a carbon copy of one another. 3-4 fronts that are capable of strangling the life out of the opposition for all 4 quarters. It’ll be a tightly fought and edgy encounter. Take the points if Roethlisberger is fit.
New York Jets (+3.5) over NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (Tueday 1:30am, ESPN)
The big one. 2 teams with the NFL best 9-2 record square off with home field advantage in the playoffs at stake. A win for the Jets here would be huge. Brady has won 25 straight regular season games in Foxboro, tying Brett Favre’s record, and the Jets haven’t doubled the Patriots up in a long time. Do so now and they take a game lead in the division plus get the tie-breaker. The Jets might not be winning with style at the moment but there’s a confidence and a swagger about this team that worries me just a little. The key battle will be the Patriots Offense against the Jets D. Easily the best units on each team . New England’s offensive line has a toughness about it now that Logan Mankins is back and they’re finding running room, but against the Jets that comes at a premium. Revis got beat by Moss for a spectacular touchdown in week 2 but with that match-up gone it will be interesting to see who he spends his time with on Revis Island this week. Take the points and hold on tight. There could be fireworks in this one.
Last Week: 11-5
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