The dominant power in the AFC resides in Foxboro. New England’s 45-3 Monday Night victory over the Jets put them firmly in the driving seat for home field advantage in the play-offs. Elsewhere last week San Diego’s string of wins was halted by a resilient Oakland team that ran the ball incredibly well. The big story however was in Denver where 2nd year head coach Josh McDaniels got shown the door. He’s good enough that he’ll get a coordinator job next season certainly and young enough that he’ll get a second chance to run a team somewhere. There are a few elimination games this week as teams can no longer afford to say “we’ll get it next week”. Sky Sports have decided to show the Red Zone Channel at 6pm instead of one of the games. This means you won’t miss any of the scores from the early games, a great thing for the NFL fan. Home team in caps.
Indianapolis Colts (-3) over TENNESSEE TITANS (Friday 1am, Sky Sports 1)
These are two teams on terrible form. The Titans haven’t scored an offensive touchdown in 15 quarters of football and murdered countless fantasy teams in the process (including mine). However they might not need the offense too much tonight. Peyton Manning has thrown 4 interceptions returned for touchdowns in the last 2 games. The perennial Pro-Bowler looks lost at the moment. He’s had little help at the moment from a pathetic running game and the lack of Dallas Clark is hurting a lot. Both teams cannot afford another defeat, but Manning usually steps up in primetime games so I’m backing him.
Cincinnati Bengals (+9) over PITTSBURGH STEELERS
The Bengals have started to play better of recent weeks but continue make silly errors, such as the offside jump against the Saints last week, that point towards a badly coached outfit. The Steelers battled to a crucial win in Baltimore last week after a fantastic play from Troy Polamalu. Their offensive line injuries are still a problem and have resulting in Ben Roethlisberger getting seriously banged up. His ankle injury has Big Ben looking extremely immobile which could be an issue.
Cleveland Browns (+1) over BUFFALO BILLS
Peyton Hillis should enjoy himself this week. The Bills have been giving up a whopping 170 yards a game on the ground. Colt McCoy’s return from injury is doubtful meaning Jake Delhomme will continue, and it will be important to keep the ball out of his hands as much as possible. Ryan Fitzpatrick could actually be the Quarterback of the next 5 years for Buffalo but a loss for them here, in the grand scheme of things, will be better for the 2-10 Bills. And with injuries along the offensive and defensive lines I think that could well be the outcome.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (-4.5) over Oakland Raiders
The surprising AFC South leaders play host to a hot-and-cold Raiders team. These guys rank 2nd and 3rd in rushing attack so expect to see a heavy dose of the impressive Darren McFadden and Maurice Jone-Drew. However both sides have play poorly when having to rely on the passing game so if one side can jump out to a big lead the other is unlikely to be able to come back. Itwill be up to the head coaches Del Rio and Kable to stick with the game plan and keep the ball in the hands of their playmaking runners.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (+1) over New York Giants
Brett Favre is hurt again. Shocker. The old man is breaking down and piling up the turnovers. While Tavaris Jackson, who came in for Favre last week, didn’t play brilliantly either his mobility in the back field helps greatly Thereturn to full health of WR Sidney Rice his huge for whoever plays QB for the Vikes on sunday. The Giants have gotten their running game going again with the 1-2 combo of Jacobs and Bradshaw just in time. They need to get a win here with tough games against Philly and Green Bay coming up. This will be a close game.
Green Bay Packers (-6.5) over DETRIOT LIONS
Green Bay cannot afford to lose this game with a trip to Foxboro coming up next week and a week 17 date against Chicago. Aaron Rodgers is in great form at the moment and should do well against a Detroit Lions team that has been playing teams close for 2 quarters a game, but can’t keep it up at the moment. The Lions aren’t far of becoming a respectable team again. If they can strengthen the offensive line over the next offseason their high pick skill players can actually show off their talents. This one will be close at the half, but the Packers should accelerate away in the 3rd and 4th quarters.
Atlanta Falcons (-7) over CAROLINA PANTHERS
The Atlanta Falcons have an extremely balanced on offense. They can run through you or pass over you at any point in unspectacular but efficient fashion. They had to come back against the Bucs last week on the road, proving this team is mentally tough too. They’re not far from locking up home field advantage. As for the Panthers… They had a 14 point lead against the Seahawks and couldn’t even come close to covering the + 6 last week. There’s no incentive to win, or even play well. Head Coach John Fox is out the door at the end of the season and the #1 pick in the draft is theirs.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1) over WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Tampa lost a tough one at home that puts them on the cusp of play-off elimination. They’ve also lost Centre Jeff Faine & cornerback Aqib Talib who was playing at a pro-bowl level. The Redskins however seem to have forgotten how to play football. The game last week against the Giants was a pathetic display, and one rarely seen in NFC East games. They’ve suspended Albert Haynesworth for the rest of the season in what looks like a scape-goat move. He’s been a pain sure but he’s not the reason this team is collapsing. The switch to a 3-4 defense hasn’t worked and the raft of minimum wage guys around McNabb doesn’t help him get the points needed to cover up the frailties of the D.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (NL) over Kansas City Chiefs (Sunday 9pm, Sky Sports 3)
Earlier this week the line was Chargers -6.5 but Kansas’ QB Matt Cassel, who’s been playing very well this year, had an apendectamy this week and is apparently 50% to play on Sunday. I was ready to jump all over the Chiefs + 6.5 but now I’m not going near them. Both of these teams misfired last week but the Chiefs were able to win and San Diego weren’t. As a result this is now an elimination game for the Chargers. The way Oakland were able to run the ball with ease has to be encouraging for Kansas, owners of the NFL’s best rushing game, but if Cassel can’t go San Diego should be free to load the box and clamp down on Jones and Charles. I expect this line to re-open around the SD -7/8 mark and will be taking them.
St. Louis Rams (+9.5) over NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
A possible wildcard match up here. The Rams have won back to back road games. But the Superdome is a much tougher challenge than the previous games. The New Orleans offense is firing but the D still needs some work. Bradford continues to impress but this will be the rookie’s first big road test against a noisy crowd that knows their team must win to have a chance at repeating. I think the Rams can keep it close though. They’re a tougher team than they once were.
Seattle Seahawks (+5.5) over SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
The NFC West (excluding St. Louis) can just go away. The Seahawks can’t decide if they’re a good, bad or indifferent team. In their last six games the winning margin has been at least 17 points. As for the 49ers, without Frank Gore to carry the load they’re going to struggle to create points. Head Coach Mike Singletary is handing the reins back to Alex Smith, who is still yet to prove he can do anything. Troy Smith has a much better stats line than Alex and his mobility gives an X-Factor this offense really needed but he’s now back to the bench. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him playing again this year though.
NEW YORK JETS (-5.5) over Miami Dolphins
The Jets will be out to make up for Monday’s humiliation in Foxboro. Rex Ryan will be after a much improved performance in all areas, not least from Mark Sanchez, whose faults were put on display for all to see Monday. The Dolphins are a changeable team. The defense, lead by NFL sack leader Cameron Wake, can be very disruptive but the offense is struggling a lot. The running game has been nowhere near what was expected while Chad Henne’s struggles could see the ‘Fins looking elsewhere for a starting QB next year. They’ll try hard to play spoiler to their divisional rivals but the Jets will have too much on the line to drop this one.
Denver Broncos (-5.5) over ARIZONA CARDINALS
Josh McDaniels is gone. Denver has turned to runningbacks coach Eric Studesville as interim Head Coach. We’ve seen Interim’s win their 1st games in Dallas and Minnesota so I’m backing that trend. And 1st games don’t get much easier than going into Glendale. The Cardinals are in a mess and playing for the draft at the moment. They haven’t scored a touchdown in 2 games, and that was at the very end of being blown out by Kansas. While the defense is just disasterous. No one thought the subtraction of middle linebacker Carlos Dansby would lead to such a meltdown.
New England Patriots (-3) over CHICAGO BEARS
New England are rolling. After the surgical dissection of the Jets defense on Monday night Tom Brady will face off against another of the best defenses in the NFL. Lead by Brian Urlacher and Julius Peppers this defense carried the Bears through the early season struggles on offense and now they’ve picked up their performance on that side Chicago look like a threatening team. Soldier Field in December is no easy place to go and win but the conditions shouldn’t worry New England too much. The short week, which is keeping this line close, could be an issue but Bill Belichik prepares his teams better than anyone and they’ll be ready for a battle.
Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) over DALLAS COWBOYS (Monday 1:30am, Channel 4)
Philadelphia are well rested after some Michael Vick heroics saved last Thursdays game against Houston. Dallas seem to be back to what people expected of them this year. This is the first time the bitter rivals meet this season and play again in week 17. There’s always fireworks when these two get together and this game should be no different. Vick’s numbers have calmed down slightly recently as teams adjust to him, DeMarcus Ware will have to have a big game for Dallas to win this and keep Vick under control. Dallas are running it more under Garrett, a clever thing to do with John Kitna as your Quarterback.
Baltimore Ravens (-3) over HOUSTON TEXANS (Tuesday 1:30am, ESPN)
A stunned Ravens team needs a win to keep it’s wildcard lead while Houston are now out of the playoff picture. Baltimore’s offense has struggled to put up points of late but Joe Flacco should find some joy against the Texans secondary. Houston’s Arian Foster continues to lead the NFL in rushing yards and touchdown but this will be the toughest test of his fledgling career. Haloti Ngata is playing fantastic football on the Ravens D-line and should be a disruptive force all game.
Last Week: 6-10
Hi Toby,
ReplyDeleteCan I just ask with these selections your advise is to back the first team? So for instance back the Bengals at +9 vs Steelers? Only issue I have with this is on Betfair the only option seems to be to back the Bengals at +9.5.
Cheers Skeeno.
I take the 1st team over the 2nd yea.
ReplyDeleteThe lines move during the week and different sites have different lines. I use BET365 so that's where I get the lines from.
Shop around for the best deal in terms of price and points is my advice. It costs nothing to set up an online account so if one site is giving you an extra point on a line you already like you might as well take it.