Week 15 picks and previews

Last week was a horror story of back door covers and crazy performances, resulting in my worst weekly record. For that I can only apologise. One thing last week did prove however is that New England are the team to beat. They laid a beating on Chicago in blizzard-like conditions. Elsewhere around the league San Diego got a life-line as they pummelled the Brodie Croyle lead Chiefs and amazingly the 4-9 Arizona Cardinals aren’t yet eliminated from the play-off race. This week is full of elimination games and key clashes, so let’s get into it. Home team in caps…

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-9.5) over San Francisco 49ers (Friday 1am, Sky Sports 2)

San Diego got a break in facing Croyle and not Cassel last week. This week they face a 49ers team still in the hunt with Alex Smith at the helm. Smith put in a #1 pick performance at long last in his pounding of the Seahawks. But there’s a big difference between Seattle and San Diego. After last week’s win the Chargers are just a game back of the Chiefs and know one slip up will cost them. I can’t see this being anything other than a dominant San Diego win.

Prediction: Chargers 34 - 17 49ers

Kansas City Chiefs (+Cassel) over ST LOUIS RAMS

ST LOUIS RAMS (+Croyle) over Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas needs Cassel back. Brodie Croyle is now 0-10 as a starting QB and they were unable to do anything last week with him back there. Cassel is preparing like he’ll be starting which is a good sign, but you just don’t know how his body will cope if the Rams can get one or two early shots on him. As for the Rams, they got shown up in New Orleans and Bradford, for once, looked like a rookie. But there’s no shame in that.

Prediction: Chiefs 23 - 17 Rams

Houston Texans (+1.5) over TENNESSEE TITANS

There are so many logical reasons to reverse this pick. Tennessee have a whole 5 days longer to rest and prepare, Houston are dire against the pass and made the Ravens look like an offensive dream team on Monday night. The Texans won the 1^st meeting between these two but that was with Rusty Smith at QB for the Titans. I think I’ve just fallen for the Schaub-Foster-Johnson trifecta. And throw in a healthy Owen Daniels and I just can’t go against them with a team that, up until last week, had really struggled to put up points.

Prediction: Texans 31 - 26 Titans

Jacksonville Jaguars (+4.5) over INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

This pick is half hope, half belief. Maurice Jones-Drew would be in the MVP discussion if it wasn’t already over. He’s been running like a man possessed recently, and throw in Rashard Jenning’s 100 yard ground game last week and this is an offense designed to give the Indianapolis Colts nightmares. The Colts jumped out to an early lead last week and never really looked in trouble against the Titans, especially with the poor coaching going on at the end from Fisher. Manning can rack up the points and an early explosion from the Colts might just rattle Del Rio enough to put the game in David Garrard’s hands. Bad idea. However the Colts are prone to back door covers with that weak D. I’m taking the points.

Prediction: Jags 28 - 26 Colts

Arizona Cardinals (+3) over CAROLINA PANTHERS

The must-miss game of the week. I have no idea how Carolina can be giving 3 points to ANYONE. They are clearly the worst team in the league and checked out on this season a long time ago. Arizona at least showed some signs of live last week and are giving rookie QB John Skelton a chance. The Carolina QB’s have thrown 9 TD’s to their own guys, and 5 to the opposition. This is a team going nowhere fast and begging for a fresh start under new coaching.

Prediction: Cards 24 - 14 Panthers

Cleveland Browns (+1.5) over CINCINNATI BENGALS

Rookie Colt McCoy is back after missing the last 3 games with an ankle injury. After a year of saying how bad Palmer had been playing I went and picked him last week. Never again. The man is making bad reads and worse throws. McCoy’s return should reinvigorate an offense that was struggling under the direction of Jake Delhomme and will get more out of Peyton Hillis.

Prediction: Browns 27 - 17 Bengals

Buffalo Bills (+5.5) over MIAMI DOLPHINS

What does 10 punts and 55 passing yards get you? A win if you’re the Miami Dolphins. Last week was a horror show for the offense against the Jets, but there aren’t many defenses you’d want to face when struggling more than Buffalo’s. The Bills have the offensive parts to compete if they can keep the monstrous Cameron Wake even vaguely under wraps, however that is a very tough assignment as Tackles across the NFL are finding. He’s a serious defensive player of the year candidate.

Prediction: Dolphins 23 - 19 Bills

Philadelphia Eagles (+3) over NEW YORK GIANTS

Yet more injuries for Philadelphia. Stewart Bradley suffered a nasty elbow injury that will keep him out for at least the rest of the regular season. Cornerback Asante Samuel missed his second game in a row. And yet the Eagles keep rolling behind their explosive offense and solid D. The Giants had one of the strangest weeks in the NFL, having been re-routed to Kansas City because of the snow storm in Minnesota before heading off to Detroit for a Monday game. All that travelling and uncertainty coupled with a short week and the beaten up receivers makes me doubt them here. And it’s not like Eli Manning is taking particularly good care for the football either.

Prediciton: Eagles 31 - 28 Giants

DALLAS COWBOYS (-6) over Washington Redskins

Dallas look capable of putting up points on pretty much any team at the moment. Washington however look incapable of doing much at all. They ran all over Tampa last week but couldn’t get into the endzone enough and ended up losing on a botched extra point. They’re not in a good place right now, the switch to 3-4 on defense has been a disaster, so has the Haynesworth move. Jason Garrett is putting together a good bid to get the permanent HC job with the Cowboys, but I still think Jerry Jones goes for a big name coach.

Predictions: Cowboys 36 - 17 Redskins

Detroit Lions (+5.5) over TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

The Lions are getting less credit then they deserve for beating Green Bay last week. Sure, Aaron Rodgers suffering a concussion changed the direction of the game but it wasn’t like the Packers were dominating on that side of the ball. The Lions D was handling Rodgers well before he went down. Against Tampa they’ll be facing a more balanced offense but one that has struggled to put up points recently. The Bucs also suffered more injuries, including to #3 pick Gerald McCoy. They’re fading from a surprising play-off push, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing for this team.

Prediction: Bucs 19 - 17 Lions

New Orleans Saints (+1.5) over BALTIMORE RAVENS

This is a very tough game to call. Both sides need a win to keep ahead of the pack and in-touch with their division leaders. The Ravens have struggled of late offensively, while the Saints have been racking up the points and playing much more like their ’09 championship selves. Drew Brees continues to throw picks though, and with Ed Reed back there those stray passes are likely to end up going the other way. This will be a very close game.

Prediction: Saints 27 - 24 Ravens

Atlanta Falcons (-6) over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

A surprisingly low line. It’s Atlanta’s 3^rd straight road game and Qwest field is rarely an easy place to visit, but realistically the Falcons ought to win this comfortably. They play mistake free football and don’t turn it over. All of the Seahawks losses have been by double digits and I can’t see this one being any different.

Prediction: Falcons 37 - 10 Seahawks

New York Jets (+5.5) over PITTSBURGH STEELERS (Sunday 9pm, Sky Sports 4)

Am I really taking Mark Sanchez, on the road, against one of the best D’s in football? This doesn’t sit right with me at all. The Jets now haven’t scored a touchdown since their Thanksgiving game against Cincinnati and the offense was ugly against the Dolphins. Equally the Steelers are having their own offensive issues and are very much relying on the defense to put them in good position. This seems to be working as they’re on a 4 game winning streak, but against the blitz-happy Rex Ryan Pittsburgh’s patch work offensive line could well be exposed again, leaving Roethlisberger to take yet more hits.

Prediction: Steelers 17 - 14 Jets

OAKLAND RAIDERS (-6.5) over Denver Broncos

The Denver Broncos are in a tail spin. Getting turned over like that by what had been a farcical Cardinals team last week has got to be worrying for interim coach Eric Studesville. The team seems thin on talent and motivation. The Raiders meanwhile were unable to capitalise on a great performance from Darren McFadden against the Jags, and will hope the 3^rd year running back can pull out another huge game.

Raiders 27 - 17 Broncos

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (NL) over Green Bay Packers (Monday 1.30am, Channel 4)

As if visiting Gillette stadium wasn’t daunting enough at the moment the Packers are preparing to field Matt Flynn in the wake of Aaron Rodgers’ second concussion of the season. And Green Bay’s visible lack of running game makes this road trip a terribly hard one. The New England Patriots are the form team in the NFL at the moment, having knocked off another serious contender last week. Tom Brady is playing better football now than during his record breaking 2007 season while their young defense is playing much better recently. Don’t expect the line to open until Saturday when a decision about Rodgers is made, but when it does it could be as high at Pats – 12. And at the moment you’d be hard pressed to find anyone who doesn’t think the Pats can get that.

Prediction: Patriots 35 - 17 Packers

Chicago Bears (NL) over MINNESOTA VIKINGS (Tuesday 1.30am, ESPN)

From one injured Quarterback Minnesota now have 2. Tavaris Jackson was placed on Injured Reserve today, leaving rookie Joe Webb as most likely to be under centre against a Bears D looking to re-establish itself. Meanwhile the Metrodome won’t be ready so the game will be hosted at University of Minnesota’s Gopher Stadium. The problem there is that the snow is 5 feet deep in places and they’re calling on fans to come over and lend a hand to get the stadium clear of snow. All this uncertainty plays to the Bears hands. After their struggles in the snow against New England Chicago will want to get back to the good football they were playing. There’s still a chance Chicago can claim a bye week for the play-offs, and their defense is good enough to cause a lot of havoc against an offense that will need to lean heavily on Adrian Peterson.

Prediction: Bears 25 - 13 Vikings

Last week: 5-10-1