Crunch time in the NFL. The conference titles are up for grabs and a trip to Dallas is the dream. Last week saw another big upset as the New York Jets backed up all their talk and won in Foxboro after totally out playing New England.
It’s the Packers however, who are the hot team at the moment after dominating in the Georgia Dome and look like the powerhouse I, and a lot of analysts, thought they’d be in the pre-season. However they now have to make another trip to Soldier Field and face their rivals Chicago. It’s only the 2nd post season meeting between these 2 sides.
The Jets also return to Heinz Field where they won in week 15 to face a Pittsburgh side chasing it’s 7th superbowl title and what would be their 3rd since 2005.
So let’s break it down. No spread picks at the start this time. It’ll keep a bit of suspense….
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears
Chicago wins 20-17 @ Soldier Field – Week 3
Green Bay wins 10-3 @ Lambeau – Week 17
These two fan bases hate each other. The players? Not so much. There’s been none of the vitriol and hatred we saw last week with the intra divisional match ups, and it’s kind of nice to see. These are two squads that have a mutual respect for one another and how they each play the game.
During the season they split the series, both winning at home. Which you’d think gives the Bears an edge. Especially when you consider that was the early season, jittery Bears and not the balanced winners they are now. But it’s not like Green Bay aren’t used to the conditions a January game in Chicago can bring. They play on their own frozen tundra over in Wisconsin after all. And at the moment the Packers are hot enough to melt any snow that might fall in the Windy City.
So if the conditions aren’t much of an advantage just how do the Bears beat this juggernaut? It starts with tackling. Last week Atlanta were able to get pressure on Aaron Rodgers without bringing extra blitzers, which is a good sign for Chicago. It’s just Rodgers was escaping the pressure and avoiding would-be tacklers like could foresee what they were going to do. Chicago will need to rush with discipline off the edge and not get too deep in the back field on the outside. It should also help that defensive tackle Tommie Harris has been playing much better recently, inside pressure is one of the best ways to knock a quarterback out of rhythm. But it’s not like Rodgers is bad when throwing on the move or running. The coverage down field is going to have to be excellent all day.
On the other side of the ball Jay Cutler is going to have his work cut out. The Green Bay defense has been excellent recently and in the week 17 game held Chicago without a touchdown, ok they didn’t have to win that game, but the Bears were playing their starters and going all out to stop their rivals getting into the post season. They failed, and now have to reap the consequences. The Packers are strong across the board on defense and will press the Bears on every down. So where do they get their points from? Chicago have a balanced offense, they can run the ball and have a deep passing attack. There’s no definite #1 receiver either for Tramon Williams to tail so defensive coordinator Dom Capers will have to pull out a plan to cover the speed of Knox, Hester and even Tight End Greg Olsen.
The main advantage Chicago holds is on special teams. Their return men of Devin Hester and Daniel Manning give the Bears great field position and are a threat every time they get the ball. In week 3 Green Bay gave Hester a chance on punt return, and he punished them with a touchdown. They can’t do this again or the same result is inevitable.
I have a gut feeling about Chicago in this one though. They’re a home underdog, which you very rarely see in the play-offs and for a good reason. The last one? Seattle against New Orleans. And we all know how that played out. Chicago has also had a good rest and then a tune up game vs the Seahawks last week that was really over by half time. Green Bay on the other hand have had 2 road games and been in “must win” mode for a long time now. Keeping up that physical and mental state is extremely difficult. They looked fantastic against a rather shell shocked Falcons team and everyone is backing them to blow out the Bears. But these games are always close, and in a close game the crowd starts to play a bigger factor.
The Bears defense is designed to stop the big play while crushing even good running games and Rodgers is yet to have a big day against them. If there’s one thing these play-offs have told us is that the consensus pick is never the sure thing it seems.
Prediction:- Bears 23 – Packers 17
New York Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers
New York wins 22-17 @ Heinz Field – Week 15
The Jets had the perfect game plan for their upset win in New England last weekend and executed it brilliantly, but they’ll need a completely new defensive plan to bet the Steelers and I think it begins with attacking the very frail Pittsburgh offensive line. There have been so many injuries and changes to that line that they are very thin there and if the Jets can mix up their blitzes and keep their front 7 fresh with good rotation then I can see the Steelers OL giving up a lot of pressure in the second half.
As for the Jets coverage. The mix of interior low zones and outside man coverage that blanketed the Patriots so well won’t work here. I can see Darrelle Revis, who is playing lights out football again after a slow start to the season, taking care of Hines Ward as he did in their meeting during the regular season (2 catches for 34 yards) and then Antonio Cromartie going on the big play guy Mike Wallace. This fits better than having Revis on Wallace because Cromartie has a history of doing better against flat out speed guys rather than covering the quick underneath stuff that Ward runs.
As for the Steelers, the biggest change from the week 15 game is that Troy Polamalu will play this one. Mark Sanchez was a perfect 9 of 9 throwing between the numbers, and this is where the long haired beast lives. Polamalu is a game changer of the highest calibre on defense, and while I don’t think he’s 100% healthy at the moment he’s much better than anyone else the Steelers can put back there.
So how does this game play out? The Jets have been limiting Mark Sanchez’s impact on their games recently, and while he made good throws last week he was helped by fantastic plays on the touchdowns by his receivers. I think we see a lot of LaDanian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene carrying the ball in this one. It’ll be important for the Jets to keep changing them up against this #1 ranked rushing defense. One of the biggest battles will be Jets centre Nick Mangold against the Steelers nose tackle Casey Hampton. They’re both heading to the Pro Bowl this season and unlike Vince Wilfork last week Hampton will not be moved across the line so much, he’ll stay dead centre and make Mangold face him on every snap.
In week 15 the Jets scored points on a kick-off return for a touchdown (rare), a safety (rare) and a fantastically performed naked bootleg that the Steelers will not be biting on again. So I’m not sure where the Jets points really come from this time around. Brad Smith, who scored the return TD, wasn’t fit to play last week, and Polamalu is back. But then I can’t really see how the Steelers can do anything on offense this week either. So I’m going to pick Pittsburgh to cover the -3.5 spread. Why?
Because I trust Roethlisberger more than I do Sanchez. You can call me a bitter Pats fan if you want (which is totally accurate) but any sane thinking NFL follower should think the same. And for me that’s what this game comes down to. We’ve got 2 fantastic defenses squaring off, which offense can survive the best and which QB can hang in there and make plays. In Ben I Trust.
Prediction:- Steelers 17 – Jets 10
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