So last week wasn’t great for me, but at least I’m not Gregg Williams. The New Orleans defensive coordinator got completely out-coached last weekend in possibly the biggest upset since the Giants won Superbowl 42 against New England. The Jets got one over on Indianapolis after Jim Caldwell morphed into Andy Reid and called a crazy time-out to help the Jets on their way to a last second field goal. The Ravens forced 5 turnovers against Kansas and routed them, running nearly twice the offensive plays that the Chiefs did. While the Packers out-played Philly for the most of the game but ended up needing a last minute interception in the endzone from the impressive Tramon Williams.
All this leaves us with 2 intra divisional battles in the AFC and 2 repeat games in the NFC. So let’s get down to it, home team in Caps…
Baltimore Ravens (+3) over PITTSBURGH STEELERS (Saturday 9pm, Sky Sports 4)
A match not for the faint of heart. These two teams HATE each other. Their last 4 games have been won by a field goal, so I’m taking the points here given just how close these two teams are.
The match up will really come down to which offensive line and quarterback plays the best going against the monstrous defense both franchises have complied. Football outsiders (the kings of NFL stats) has Pittsburgh ranked 1 and Baltimore 3 for team defense. Pittsburgh’s offensive line has been an injury-riddled mess all year, but Roethlisberger is possibly the best quarterback in the league for extending plays, fighting off sacks and keeping his eyes down field throughout.
As for Baltimore, their offensive line, and particularly left tackle Michael Oher, didn’t have the best game last week against Kansas. Flacco got hit a lot and took 4 sacks, so they can be vulnerable to the Pittsburgh front 7.
In their last match up Troy Polamalu came up with the biggest play in the 4th quarter, and the Steelers have had a bye week for him and a few others to get healthy which is vitally important.
Last week the Ravens front 7 looked a bit slow, although it was against Jamaal Charles. But the Steelers have their own pocket rocket in wide receiver Mike Wallace to take advantage of that. Wallace might be the best big-play receiver in football. In the 2 regular season games between these 2 he was held to 100 yards and 0 touchdowns which is fantastic, but if Roethlisberger gets time even Ed Reed might not be able to get in the way of Mike Wallace.
These teams won their away fixture against each other in the regular season so home field seems to count for little here too. This will be a tight one all the way.
Prediction:- Steelers 24 – 20 Ravens. But could very easily be the reverse of this.
Green Bay Packers (+2.5) over ATLANTA FALCONS (Sunday 1am, Sky Sports 4)
Green Bay are the sexy team in the NFC. But this pick goes beyond their popularity and column inches. Green Bay’s defense is playing at a very high level at the moment (2nd on Footballoutsiders.com) while James Starks exploded out of the shadows to gain over 100 yards against the Eagles.
These two sides met in a very close match at the Georgia Dome in week 12 which Atlanta won 20-17. So why do I think this will be any different? In that game Aaron Rodgers was Green Bay’s leading rusher getting 51 yards and a TD on 12 carries. Now unless you’re the Eagles this is not a great recipe for success in a road game, Rodgers also fumbled on the goal line (the only turnover of the game.). Green Bay are playing a much higher level of football right now than back in week 12, whereas I feel that Atlanta are playing slightly worse.
The Falcons last had a competitive game in week 16 when they played the Saints at home and basically threw the win away by playing conservative, play-not-to-lose football. They’ve had a long time to rest up and reflect on that defeat and should be much more positive in their play this week.
The Falcons offense is designed to lull you to sleep. Michael Turner has been pounding the ball a lot this season, and his 1371 yards looks mighty impressive, he’s gone at just 4.1 yards a carry, his lowest as a Falcon. With Turner plodding along the importance of the passing game increases. Which would be fine if Matt Ryan had a target other than Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez. I’ve been pretty impressed by Ryan, but in Atlanta’s 2 losses White was held to 9 catches and 1 touchdown. You take away his only outside threat and the offense as a whole will struggle.
Green Bay’s counter to White is one of the best emerging cover corners in the game, Tramon Williams. If you don’t recognise the name you won’t be the only one. In a defense where headlines are split between Clay Matthews and Charles Woodson, Williams goes about his business in a very affective way. His play this year is part of the reason for their number 1 ranked pass defense. So if Williams can get the best of White the Falcons will struggle to move the ball, especially as that will free up Charles Woodson to attack the line of scrimmage much more.
On the defensive side for Atlanta they are going to need big games from their pass rush specialists. And the defensive line as a whole. They have a number of guys on there doing a great job and getting little recognition such as Jonathan Babineaux and Jamaal Anderson, but a performance here will get them some attention.
The Falcons secondary has looked patchy at times despite the improved play from Brent Grimes and Green Bay have a myriad of wide receivers who Aaron Rodgers trusts and should be able to get open. If the Packers can maintain the balanced offense of a week ago I can’t see them losing.
Prediction:- Green Bay 27 – 21 Atlanta
CHICAGO BEARS (-10) over Seattle Seahawks (Sunday 5.30pm, Sky Sport 2)
Can it really happen again? Last week Seattle stunned everyone by upsetting the defending champions. This week they travel to Chicago, where they won in week 6 23-20. However that was against a very different Bears team. Since then they’ve sorted out the offensive line woes that saw Seattle rack up 6 sacks of Cutler in that game and become more balanced on offense.
Jeremy Bates, Seattle’s offensive coordinator, called the game of his life on Saturday. Everything he touched turned to gold, but that’s unlikely to happen against this Bears defense. Chicago’s 4-3 defense plays with 2 deep safeties and often has middle linebacker Brian Urlacher dropping back deep as well. They don’t have to blitz to generate pressure on the quarterback either like New Orleans do so Matt Hasselbeck won’t see many blitzes. Instead his day will be spent trying to avoid Julius Peppers, one of the best pass rushers in the NFL today.
Chicago’s defensive philosophy is all about preventing the big play, something that Seattle lived on against the Saints. This means we’re very unlikely to see a repeat of the 41 points the Seahawks put up last week.
The Bears offense has been more balanced recently and the offensive line has been better, but you wouldn’t call it a strength. Jay Cutler has taken 52 sacks this year and when hit early has looked skittish and anxious in the pocket. He has however got a knack for extending plays with his feet, but also for untimely interceptions. One or two early hits and a bad throw could swing this back towards Seattle.
The other key battle in this game is special teams. 2 of the best return men in the NFL are Devin Hester of Chicago and Leon Washington in Seattle. So watch for both teams to punt to the edges and play it safe on kick offs. An early return touchdown could swing momentum decisively one way or another.
I just can’t see Seattle pulling this one out without their famous 12th man crowd who registered on the richter scale during Marshawn Lynch’s incredible touchdown run last week. But Pete Carroll has done a fantastic job motivating his players. They believe they can do it even if no one else does.
Prediction:- Chicago 31 – 17 Seattle
New York Jets (+8.5) over NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (Sunday 9pm, Sky Sports 2)
Rex Ryan is talking. A lot. He’s determined to try and get inside the head of Bill Belichick and the Patriots this week. But it’s something that just isn’t going to happen. Ryan and the Jets very much have “little man” syndrome in this rivalry. The Patriots have 3 superbowls, 4 AFC Championships and 8 AFC East division titles in the last 10 years. The Jets? Well the fact that 2nd year quarterback Mark Sanchez took the record for most post-season wins by a Jets QB last week with his 3rd should give some indication of their franchise’s success.
As a result Ryan is talking up his team, his talents and his chances. On December 6th these two teams met in Foxboro for what was dubbed the battle for #1 in the AFC. It wasn’t a battle for long. New England destroyed the Jets 45-3. They picked off Sanchez 3 times and routed the Jets. It was an embarrassment for them and one that Rex Ryan will have been studying ever since.
I don’t for a moment think that New England can repeat that score line. It was a perfect storm kind of game where everything came together for them, and fell apart for the Jets.
For New England to win they simply have to do what they’ve been doing most of the year. Not turn the ball over, keep the defense guessing, and make a few plays on defense themselves. The Patriots use of personnel packages is the best in the league. They can come out in 5 wide or 3 tight ends or 2 backs and run any play they want depending on what match ups you show them. They can even line up with rookie TE’s Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski in the traditional role one play, and then on the next play flex them out like wide receivers. It creates matchup problems like nothing seen before. Personally I think the Jets will have to treat Hernandez like a WR and keep a cornerback on him, but even that might not work.
Tom Brady spreads the ball out extremely effectively as well, which will negate the Jets best player Darrelle Revis, who is a shutdown corner of the highest calibre. In the week 2 game which New York won an injured Revis was stationed on Randy Moss and did a good job (mostly) in taking away the deep threat. Since then the Patriots offense has evolved into the Hydra of the NFL. They have so many weapons and so many ways to beat you that it’s impossible to defend all of them.
As for the Jets offense. I they make Sanchez throw it 25+ times they’ll struggle. He’s looked REALLY dodgy recently and was sailing passes over his receivers heads all day against Indy last week. While the Jets dominated the second half of that game with their running and offensive line it was against a very weak Colts interior defense, and the interior is the Patriots strength. Vince Wilfork is as close as you can get to an immovable force in the NFL these days, and the NFL’s leading tackler in linebacker Jerod Mayo feeds off Wilfork’s ability to eat up blockers.
Sanchez will have to make more plays than his usual last minute lobs to Edwards and Holmes in this game to get back to the AFC Championship game for the 2nd time in his career.
Prediction:- Patriots 24 – 17 Jets
Last week: 1-3
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