After an exciting, baffling and always intriguing regular season it’s time for the play-offs. We have 5 new teams from last year but only two of them (Seattle and Kansas City) are playing this week. The rest (Atlanta, Chicago and Pittsburgh) are all sat at home this weekend waiting to see who they’ll play. The road teams this week all have an equal or better record that their opponents, it might not be long before an alternate seeding system is used, but that’s for another day. For now, Home team in caps…
New Orleans Saints (-10.5) over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (Saturday 9:30pm, Sky Sports 2)
We’ll start with the 1st and easiest to call. At 7-9 the Seahawks are the first losing team to make the NFL play-offs. They scraped in with a win over St Louis in a terrible final game of the regular season. All their losses have come by 15 points or more, including a 34-19 loss to New Orleans in the Superdome back in week 11. Pete Carroll has named Matt Hasselbeck as the starter after he missed the week 17 win over St. Louis. It’s not too surprising but if he was too banged up to play that crucial game he’s not going to be in a good way come Saturday. And facing Gregg Williams’ blitz happy defense is rough at the best of times.
As for New Orleans, it’s been a bad week for them. Running Backs Chris Ivory and Pierre Thomas were placed on IR this week which leaves them extremely thin in the back field. Drew Brees has been used to getting little support from the run game for a lot of the season and has still put up good numbers. He was able to hang 382 yards and 4 TDs on the Seahawks in week 11, but he did throw 2 INTs in that game and had a 99 yard performance from Ivory.
All in all we’re looking at an explosive vertical passing game going against the 27th ranked pass defense here. It’ll take some almighty effort from the Seattle players, coaches and their famous 12th man to overhaul the defending champs here.
Prediction: New Orleans 38 – 17 Seattle
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-2.5) over New York Jets (Sunday, 1:00am, Sky Sports 2)
Peyton Manning has long been Rex Ryan’s nemesis, from getting the best of Ryan's Baltimore defense to beating the Jets in the AFC Championship game last season. I don’t see it being any different here. Peyton has gotten back to his usual excellence since his mid-season blip. With Gary Brackett back at middle linebacker their run defense has improved which will help against the Greene-LT tandem.
The Jets live and die on their blitzing and the ability of their DB’s to play man to man coverage. But how long can they do this successfully against Manning? The book on Peyton is to beat him with coverage and a basic rush. If you blitz him regularly it’ll only be a matter of time before Peyton susses it out, changes the play, and burns you. Now Revis has the talent to shut Reggie Wayne down, and with no Austin Collie or Dallas Clark that match up will be huge. But I just can’t see the Jets D holding up against the Colts offense.
On the other side of the ball the key match-up really is Freeney and Mathis against the Jets play-action. If the 2 Pro-Bowl defensive ends can identify where the ball is and go after it then Mark Sanchez could have a horrible night back there. They’re really a vertical passing team now with Holmes and Edwards on the outside and so Sanchez will need time in the pocket. Freeney and Mathis have combined for 21 sacks this year and will terrorise him.
I see this game staying tight through the 2 and a half quarters, but then the Colts pulling away.
Prediction: Indianapolis 35 – 26 New York
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (+3) over Baltimore Ravens (Sunday, 5:30pm, Sky Sports 2)
This is a gut feeling thing. The Chiefs pound the ball with Jones and then when you’re a bit worn out Jamaal Charles steps up and kills you. They average a league-leading 164.2 yards rushing a game. Now while the week 17 loss against Oakland is a worry, and put a blemish on their previously perfect home record it will hopefully serve as a wake-up call for Kansas. One problem for sunday is that Dwayne Bowe, who leads the league in receiving touchdowns, has missed a lot of practice time this week through illness. If he can’t go Baltimore will have no problems in crowding the line of scrimmage and making life hard on the running backs. With Bowe in the side they simply cannot do this.
The Ravens offense seems to have found an identity at last. They’ve done a lot of things this year but not been consistently good with the ball. The last few weeks they’ve been getting Ray Rice more touches and good things have been happening. Look for a lot of him in this game, he’s second on the team in receptions too. I expect Brandon Flowers, Kansas’ premier cornerback, to work mostly against Boldin. But they’d do well to shift him over to Derrick Mason on 3rd down, he’s been Flacco’s safety net ever since he was drafted. He’s a precise route runner and lives outside the numbers, he’s a monster at getting to the sticks and will be key.
I think the Ravens just edge this one, but it will be very close. The Chiefs don’t seem to have the ability to play from behind, and so a good 1st quarter is important. If they have to start airing it out, and if Bowe isn’t fit, then they’re in trouble.
A big question mark is how the Kansas offense will function now that co-ordinator Charlie Weis has agreed to take up the same position at Florida next season. Personally i'm not too worried about this. In 2004 Weis accepted the Notre Dame Head Coach position in the middle of New England's play-off push and it didn't affect their play at all. While it doesn't bode well for Kansas next season i think they're still going to be an offensive force in this one.
Prediction: Baltimore 26 – 24 Kansas City
Green Bay Packers (+3) over PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (Sunday 9:00pm, Sky Sports 2)
The tightest game of the weekend. These 2 teams played each other in week 1 but Vick only entered that game after an injury to then starter Kevin Kolb and the Eagles were well behind at the time. Since then there’s been a whole raft of injuries on both teams and neither come into this game with what they’d describe as a 1st team.
The main question for this game is how healthy is Vick? He took a pounding in their loss against Minnesota and then sat out of the week 17 game to rest up. But his play has been declining at the tail end of this season. He’s started making some bad decisions that made him look like the Vick we knew in Atlanta more than the stunning Eagles player. The Packers might have the best defense to cope with Vick’s talents. They tackle well at all levels and are very disciplined and the pass rush from Matthews to cause problems.
On the other side expect to see a lot of passing. Aaron Rodgers has had a great season, posting the 3rd highest QB rating this year, all without a proper running threat. The Eagles like to bring pressure from all sorts of different places, but watch out for Trent Cole the Right End. He doesn’t get as much mainstream media exposure as he deserves. He has 10 sacks this year and is a pass rusher that every QB and Left Tackle fears.
Given the high powered nature of both offenses this is one game you shouldn’t miss. But there’s no guarantee of points. Both defenses have the ability to smother the opposition.
Prediction: Green Bay 28 – 24 Philadelphia
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